Andrew's Notes

forecasting

6 items with this tag.

  • Sep 01, 2026

    AI Models Have Likely Reached Parity with Superforecasters on ForecastBench

    • forecasting
    • ai-benchmarks
    • ai-capabilities
    • superforecasting
  • Aug 29, 2026

    Selective Optimism: A Critique of AI 2040

    • ai-safety
    • ai-governance
    • ai-timelines
    • forecasting
    • us-china
    • takeoff-speeds
  • Aug 26, 2026

    The Goodhart Singularity

    • ai-safety
    • superintelligence
    • ai-progress
    • scaling
    • reinforcement-learning
    • data
    • ai-governance
    • forecasting
  • Aug 22, 2026

    When AI builds itself

    • ai
    • ai-safety
    • ai-governance
    • anthropic
    • recursive-self-improvement
    • automated-rd
    • ai-policy
    • forecasting
  • Aug 12, 2026

    Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion

    • ai
    • agi
    • intelligence-explosion
    • ai-governance
    • existential-risk
    • ai-safety
    • digital-minds
    • space-governance
    • epistemics
    • forecasting
    • research-paper
  • Aug 08, 2026

    Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks

    • ai-capabilities
    • evaluations
    • benchmarking
    • forecasting
    • time-horizon
    • ai-agents
    • metr
    • software-engineering

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